SXM, the hub that can move an entire region
Princess Juliana International Airport (SXM) is at a strategic crossroads. SXM’s hub role has eroded. It is not because the airport itself “failed.” A hub is not an airport building. A hub is a function, a role in a network. The geometry around it has shifted. One basic threat is the rise of direct U.S. flights into nearby islands that once depended on SXM for access.
A hub-spoke distribution network arranges connections like a wheel, with all traffic moving between the central hub and its spokes. Passengers on long-haul flights arrive at the hub, then transfer to other flights for their final destinations. Transit facilities and immigration waivers are essential for smooth operations, but their absence can undermine the hub's effectiveness.
For years, SXM has been more than an airport, it’s served as a central connector in the Northeastern Caribbean. However, direct U.S. flights now serve Anguilla (AXA), Dominica (DOM), and the British Virgin Islands (EIS), reducing SXM's role as a hub.
Competition is intensifying. Aggressive regional contending airports like Antigua (ANU) -positioning itself as an OECS hub, San Juan (SJU) -dominating in U.S.–Caribbean travel, and Santo Domingo (SDQ) - emerging as long-haul super-hub, are gaining ground. Dominica is building a new major international airport that is expected to be operational by the end of 2026 and will accommodate long-haul flights from overseas. Nevis plans to expand its airport for Miami flights.
Airports typically lose hub status due to shifts in competition. With growing regional rivalry, SXM could lose 25–60% of its connecting traffic over the next decade unless it adapts.
The aviation industry is evolving quickly, with travelers favoring nonstop flights over connections, which reduces feeder traffic to SXM. This shift presents a strategic challenge as regional air travel moves away from the hub model. Additional taxes, fees, and time associated with transfers make point-to-point routes more attractive than hub-and-spoke systems.
Hubs generally prefer overnight passengers, but airports and tourism offices often tout their hub status to airlines at conferences, aiming to attract more connections by demonstrating high passenger demand.
Airlines base decisions on economic factors. At their headquarters there are route analysts who monitor markets, while planners determine destinations and seat capacities. If SXM would focus solely on O&D (Origin-and-Destination) traffic and becomes mainly a leisure airport, it risks seasonal fluctuations and weaker negotiating power due to its lack of hub status.
When passenger demand rises for a former hub partner destination, airlines often switch to direct flights, beginning with smaller jets and upgrading as demand grows. Competing airlines may follow suit. Ultimately, the appeal of an end-destination determines passenger demand and subsequently influences airline route choices. If passenger connections through SXM decrease, airlines may reduce flight frequencies and daily operations.
Despite competitive pressures, hub status at SXM can recover with a realistic and practical strategy. SXM must choose to take the lead, or risk losing half its connecting traffic in ten years. Rather than competing directly with other regional hubs, SXM should position itself as being the fastest and easiest multi-island gateway to the Northeastern Caribbean, supporting both aviation and local economic growth. The previous hub model is outdated. SXM needs to redefine its value proposition and offer unique advantages that competitors lack and cannot duplicate. SXM's value shall be founded on quality, innovation, and connectivity partnership, rather than competing on size.
SXM can gain an advantage by providing additional U.S. and European gateways that smaller islands lack. A dedicated transit terminal with expedited immigration for transfers, improved baggage transfer systems, and reduced connecting flight fees is desirable. SXM may consider creating a “Caribbean Connect” program and offer incentives and infrastructure to support small aircraft operators because a hub depends on its regional feeder network; without strong spokes, it loses value for long-haul carriers. Every new spoke increases the utility of long-haul flights.
SXM benefits from a strong geographic position in the Caribbean, but faces intense competition where hub status may have to be reinvented. Four hub airports within 300–500 miles in the NE Caribbean ultimately compete for the same air traffic. The worst-case scenario for SXM is ANU taking over as the main regional hub for small islands. This is likely if SXM lacks a strategy for future development.