Lista suggests pause

Economist Jason Lista has asked us to pause, look at where our tourism stands, and then decide what success should look like. His working paper at the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten argues that St. Maarten attracts less foreign direct investment (FDI) than several tourism-intensive Caribbean peers, aka, our competition. This pattern, he says, reflects tourism maturity not a collapse in investor confidence.

It's technical, but an interesting read nonetheless (see related article). The gist:

Tourism grows in stages, first you build fast, then you slow down and take care of what you built. In the early days, cranes fill the skyline, later on the smart money goes into upgrades, better service, and new experiences inside the same footprint. When that happens, the projects get smaller, the totals look lower, yet the value can still be real.

Seen that way, the question changes. Are we chasing the next resort announcement, or are we making each stay worth more. Yield per visitor, repeat visits, and lower operating costs start to matter more than the raw count of new rooms.

If that is the lane, policy should match it. Speed up permits for refurbishments that save energy and water, make buildings more accessible, and bring digital systems up to standard. Publish clearer numbers on what is being renewed versus newly built, so investors and the public can judge progress with the same yardstick.

Diversification can stay close to tourism, not run from it. Marine services, culture, trails, small conferences, and festivals add reasons to visit, without overbuilding. Public inputs can be modest, clean public spaces, signage, moorings, lighting, small stages, the kind of basics that let private operators take risk.

Our data is thin, so we guess too much. Fix that first. Track the basics every quarter, how much money goes to new builds, how much to upgrades, and where. Publish numbers for the Dutch side and the French side, side by side, so investors and the public can compare. Example, show how many hotel rooms were refurbished in Simpson Bay, how many solar retrofits happened in Grand Case, and what those projects cost.

Going upmarket can also leave people out if we do not plan. Build training into the strategy, not as an afterthought. Example: require every hotel that gets a permit for an upgrade to fund apprenticeships for front desk, maintenance, and digital systems. Tie tax breaks to local sourcing, set a simple floor, for example 30 percent of food from local farmers, 30 percent of contracts from local firms, and publish the lists so it is transparent.

Additionally, standards and inclusion belong inside the rules. Example: fast track permits that meet energy, accessibility, and local hiring benchmarks, slow down those that do not. Use small public buys to spread benefits, hire local bands for festivals, commission local designers for wayfinding, keep the money circulating at home.

So, does Lista’s call have merit. It does if we accept that a mature destination wins by steady renewal, selective new builds, and honest measurement. That path keeps foreign capital in play, aims it at quality and productivity, and fits the size of our island.

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