U.S. demand into the Caribbean holds, smaller islands gain share

GREAT BAY--U.S. demand into the Caribbean held firm through mid-2025, as airlines focused capacity on large leisure markets and strong Saturday peaks while smaller islands with clear, niche products gained share. A few big destinations softened yet still moved large volumes, producing a stable picture with selective growth where sell-through stayed strongest.

St. Maarten posted a strong second quarter, recording 209,876 airport passenger arrivals in Q2 2025, up 16.9 percent year over year, and 236,391 cruise arrivals, up 14 percent. The island performed well in both stayover and day-visit segments, reinforcing its position as a premier cruise call and a reliable air hub for extended stays.

The firm Tourism Analytics reports mixed but steady U.S. stopover trends across the region, using year-to-date data through June to August depending on the island. Several smaller destinations led growth, with St Vincent up 38 percent from January to June, Bonaire up 33 percent from January to August, St Kitts up 26 percent from January to June, Montserrat up 24 percent from January to June, Curaçao up 20 percent from January to June, Barbados up 10 percent from January to June, and Trinidad and Tobago up 9 percent from January to August. These gains reflect added lift and stronger sell-through in niche and dive-led markets, along with solid summer peaks in Barbados and in Trinidad and Tobago.

Other markets held steady or posted modest gains, including Antigua and Barbuda up 6 percent from January to July, the Cayman Islands up 4 percent from January to August, Anguilla up 3 percent from January to June, Aruba up 2 percent from January to August, and Saint Lucia up 1 percent from January to July. These outcomes align with stable schedules, resilient fares, and reliable Saturday peaks that sustained momentum through the summer.

A handful of destinations slipped as airlines tightened capacity on weaker routes or as price resistance and competition from other sun markets weighed on results. The Bahamas fell 3 percent from January to July, Jamaica declined 3 percent from January to July, the Dominican Republic dropped 5 percent from January to July, Grenada decreased 11 percent from January to July, Cuba fell 20 percent from January to June, and Dominica declined 50 percent from January to August.

For airlift planning, the signal remains clear. U.S. demand stayed broad and the region as a whole hovered near 2024 levels, supporting steady summer schedules and high load factors. Growth clustered in smaller islands with focused products and clear route propositions, where a few extra weekly flights can move the needle fast, while larger markets that eased still handled significant volumes, prompting airlines to keep most frequencies, trim under-performing city pairs, and shift seats to higher-yield routes.

Airports and tourism boards can act on this now by protecting Saturday peaks with faster turns, full gate staffing, and fewer ground delays to preserve aircraft utilization and keep flights on the board. Target U.S. origin cities with proven VFR and resort demand, and build co-op campaigns around those origins rather than broad national buys. Offer data-backed incentives that reward shoulder-day flying to stabilize hotels and yields, and monitor competitive pull from Mexico and Costa Rica, both slightly down year over year in U.S. stopovers, which creates room to win share with the right pricing and promotions.

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