STAT: Transport Costs Drove Q3 2025 Price Movement, Overall Inflation Remained Mild

GREAT BAY--The Department of Statistics (STAT) reported that transport-related costs were a key driver of consumer price movement in the third quarter of 2025, even as overall inflation remained modest and the broader price environment continued to reflect stability.

According to STAT, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q3 2025 stood at 115.09, representing a 0.76% increase compared to Q2 2025, when the CPI was 114.23.

On a year-on-year basis, STAT reported that Q3 2025 (115.09) was 1.12% higher than Q3 2024, when the CPI was 113.82. STAT also reported that the average CPI across the first three quarters of 2025 showed a 1.09% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Quarter-to-quarter movement (Q3 2025 vs Q2 2025)

STAT reported that CPI inflation increased by 0.76% in Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter, with the following movements recorded across four key expenditure categories:

• Housing, Water and Energy decreased by 0.53%, primarily due to declines in electricity.
• Transport rose by 3.97%, driven by increases in fuels and lubricants for personal transport.
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services recorded a 2.26% increase, impacted by higher costs in social protection.
• Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased by 0.10%, supported by minor increases in vegetables.

Year-on-year movement (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Comparing Q3 2025 to the same quarter in 2024, STAT reported a 1.12% increase in CPI inflation. Within the same four key categories, the movements were reported as follows:

• Housing, Water and Energy decreased by 0.29%, linked to declines in electricity, gas and other fuels, water tariffs, and maintenance and repair of the dwelling, which collectively contributed to the reduction.
• Transport increased by 5.43%, driven mainly by higher transport services, strongly influenced by higher prices in passenger transport by air.
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services rose by 3.80%, reflecting upward movements in life insurance.
• Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages increased by 2.31%, with notable price pressures observed in meat products.

STAT noted that the category increases in Q3 supported a mild rise in the overall CPI for the period, and that the results point to overall price stability despite category-level fluctuations.

Categories with the largest influence on prices

STAT highlighted the following categories as having the largest influence on prices, along with their weights and measured changes:

• Housing, Water and Energy (36.1% weight): -0.53% quarter-to-quarter, -0.29% year-on-year
• Transport (14.6% weight): +3.97% quarter-to-quarter, +5.43% year-on-year
• Miscellaneous Goods and Services (13.4% weight): +2.26% quarter-to-quarter, +3.80% year-on-year
• Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (7.2% weight): +0.10% quarter-to-quarter, +2.31% year-on-year

‍