St. Maarten’s shows 25% population growth in 11 years and rapid ageing

GREAT BAY--St. Maarten’s population has grown by about 25 percent in fifteen years, from 33,609 residents in 2011 to 41,902 in 2022, while the share of seniors more than doubled from 5.3 percent to 13.6 percent. At the same time, the share of children under 15 fell from 22.1 percent to 15.5 percent.

These shifts point to clear needs in healthcare, pensions, housing, and the labor market, and frame the Department of Statistics’ (STAT) message for World Statistics Day 2025, celebrated under the theme “Connecting the World with Data We Can Trust.” These figures were released by STAT on Sunday.

Tourism remains central to the economy, with air arrivals in January to July 2025 reaching 538,000 and signaling recovery above pre-pandemic levels, while cruise arrivals for the same period totaled 987,000. Past shocks were significant, including Hurricane Irma and the pandemic, with GDP contractions of about 9 percent in 2017, 7 percent in 2018, and 20.4 percent in 2020, followed by a rebound of 10.6 percent in 2019 and 7.1 percent in 2021.

Inflation in the first half of 2025 was 0.7 percent year over year, with notable increases in Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 4.03 percent, Transport at 2.99 percent, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services at 2.54 percent. These movements reflect imported price pressures and a recent easing from the 2022 peak, which was a little under 4 percent.

Unemployment has generally improved over time, moving from 11.5 percent in 2011 to 6.2 percent in 2017, rising to 9.9 percent after Irma, reaching 10.8 percent in 2021, then easing to 6.5 percent in 2022. Youth unemployment stood at about 15 percent in 2022, near the global average and below the Caribbean average, which underlines the value of training and targeted placement programs.

“Trusted data help government and partners plan for an older population and a denser island, prioritize services, and support job creation,” the Department noted. STAT will field the 2025 Labour Force Survey in the coming months to update employment indicators and guide policy. Residents are encouraged to participate so that planning for healthcare, pensions, skills, and infrastructure is based on accurate information.

At the recently held Governor's symposium, Economist Jason Lista stressed that St. Maarten’s living standards are under pressure. Population has grown faster than the real economy, so real GDP per person has moved down. He said the evidence points to one conclusion, policy and decision making must change if the country is to regain ground over the next decade.

“Change is the law of life,” Lista said, quoting President John F. Kennedy. Looking only to the past or the present risks missing the future. The data show what needs to move now, productivity, fair taxation of new tourism forms, an energy plan that lowers cost, social fund reform before reserves are exhausted, and a statistical system that supports honest decisions.

Lista described the setting in which that change must occur. St. Maarten is a small, open, tourism dependent economy with high import needs. It faces hurricanes and swings in global travel, and the open border with Saint Martin makes measurement more complex. The current recovery has been driven by one of the fastest rebounds in stayover arrivals in the Caribbean and a construction surge. Cruise tourism has been slower, yet is improving. He expects stayover arrivals to exceed pre pandemic levels this year, which would be a clear milestone, but he also noted that the island now has the highest tourism density per square kilometer in the region, a signal that carrying capacity must be managed.

He organized the period since 2010 into three parts. After country status, growth was modest and policy continuity was weak. The next period was defined by sharp contractions after Hurricane Irma and the pandemic, followed by strong rebounds as travel resumed. The current period shows growth that is slower than the rebound phase, yet on a higher path than the early 2010s. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year, supported by the return of room inventory and full airport operations. Public finances moved in a similar pattern, with severe strain during the pandemic and improvement as revenues recovered.

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