Prof. Oostindie warns of severe geopolitical and envio threats facing islands at IPKO, Says choice against Independence justified by realities

THE HAGUE--The six Dutch Caribbean islands enjoy a relatively strong reputation in the region as beacons of stability and rule of law, thanks largely to their non-sovereign status and the geopolitical, military, economic and legal protection provided by the Kingdom. This was the key message from Prof. em. Dr. Gert Oostindie, Emeritus Professor of Colonial and Postcolonial History at Leiden University, in his address to the Interparliamentary Kingdom Consultation (IPKO) in The Hague on Saturday.

“Nevertheless, there are severe challenges and even threats,” Oostindie cautioned. “The islands are extremely vulnerable and cannot face these on their own. This explains and justifies their choice against independence. Cooperation within the Kingdom, and between the trans-Atlantic Kingdom and its strategic partners, remains essential.”

According to Oostindie, this requires two things. First, for Dutch policymakers: to not lose sight of Caribbean interests in the current wave of geopolitical reorientations. Second, for Caribbean policymakers: to put their own house in order, starting with strong and honest governance at home, with Dutch support where necessary.

𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐱𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐏 𝐋𝐲𝐧𝐝𝐨𝐧 𝐋𝐞𝐰𝐢𝐬

Although part of Prof. Oostindie’s presentation to the parliamentarians at IPKO was held under confidentiality at the request of the delegates, details emerged through remarks shared with local media by MP Lyndon Lewis. Lewis stated that he had engaged directly with Oostindie following the professor’s references to political corruption, questioning him on the sources of his data and how he could be confident enough to speak about the islands in that way.

In response, Prof. Oostindie referred back to the confidential nature of the discussion, which prevented him from elaborating further. However, he clarified: “Most of my contribution was not on local governance and politics, but I did emphasize, particularly in closing, the importance of good governance and in that context I did indeed mention integrity issues in the Dutch Caribbean.”

𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐛𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐨𝐧

In his wide-ranging lecture, Oostindie stressed that the Caribbean is completely dependent on what happens in the rest of the world, especially the smaller islands whose economies rely primarily on tourism. This includes the six Dutch Caribbean islands. “They depend on geopolitical and economic stability, but at present the opposite is the case,” he said, before laying out the main geopolitical challenges.

𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞, 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐞𝐚 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬, 𝐀𝐝𝐚𝐩𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐧𝐯𝐢𝐫𝐨𝐧𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐈𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐞𝐬

The professor pointed out that the causes of climate change lie elsewhere and that the Caribbean islands are not in a position to solve them on their own. In the short term, impacts include stronger and more frequent hurricanes and declining attractiveness for tourism due to coral reef degradation, reduced fish stocks and loss of ecological diversity. In the long term, these impacts will undermine livability for residents and visitors alike, and will likely result in emigration, particularly to the Netherlands. The major geopolitical challenge, he said, is to return climate and environmental issues to the international agenda. “Given the position of the United States in particular, there is little prospect of this happening anytime soon,” Oostindie warned.

𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐃𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐨𝐩𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐬

Tourism in the Dutch Caribbean depends heavily on the global economy, especially in the United States and the European Union. The outlook is uncertain, Oostindie explained. A downturn in purchasing power in those regions would reduce tourist arrivals, while the islands themselves remain heavily dependent on imported oil and consumer goods. “The current tariff wars are driving up prices, undermining the purchasing power of both locals and tourists,” he said. The Antilles cannot control these forces, but they could accelerate their energy transition. He emphasized that in negotiations with the US, the Netherlands must not lose sight of Dutch Caribbean interests.

𝐎𝐥𝐝 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐞𝐫𝐬

Oostindie traced the changing geopolitical dynamics of the Caribbean. Since 1900, the region has been considered the backyard of the US, with the UK, France and the Netherlands playing supporting roles. The exception was the Soviet Union’s role in Cuba after 1959. This balance has now shifted, he said, with Trump’s America First policy creating unpredictability.

“The US under Trump has become an unpredictable factor, very assertive toward Latin America and the larger Caribbean islands, though not yet toward the European non-sovereign islands. But there is no guarantee this will remain so. Moreover, it is uncertain whether the exchange of crucial intelligence — on crime and Venezuela — will continue,” Oostindie said.

The three European powers were able to act together within the EU, but Brexit weakened this. Cooperation still exists, including militarily with the US, and must be maintained.

Venezuela, although not a new player, assumed a new role under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro: geopolitically expansive and involved in international crime despite a weak economy. Trump’s recent threats and unlawful actions against Venezuela directly implicate Aruba and Curaçao, given the US military presence there, and the Kingdom as a whole via the Royal Navy. Oostindie noted that while the Navy has a symbolic role in defending Caribbean territory, it could not stop a Venezuelan invasion. NATO has no role here.

China has become increasingly important since 2000, particularly in Venezuela and the Guyanas in connection with oil, but also for political reasons, such as its friendship treaty with Venezuela. Its presence on the Dutch Caribbean islands is limited, but likely to grow.

Russia, too, supports both Cuba and Venezuela, with China doing the same. Neither Cuba nor Venezuela now presents an ideological alternative, making this support primarily strategic against the US. Although the likelihood of Russia or China becoming involved in a US-Venezuela war is low, Oostindie warned of significant military cooperation between Russia, Venezuela and Cuba.

He also noted that Saudi Arabia is a newcomer, with investments in the region that remain limited for now.

𝐌𝐢𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐬

Since the 1990s, the largest “Antillean island” has developed in the Netherlands itself, now numbering about 175,000 people compared to some 300,000 in the Caribbean. Populations on the islands also grew, mainly through immigration, especially from the region. Up to two-thirds of the island populations consist of first- and second-generation migrants. “This is already a challenge for the social fabric of the islands,” he noted.

He highlighted two specific issues:

• Human smuggling and exploitation of migrants, driven by crises in Venezuela and Haiti combined with weak local enforcement.

• A constant risk of new refugee flows from Venezuela, with local reception falling below international standards, leaving the Kingdom open to criticism.

𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦

Drug trafficking remains a major concern, with the islands functioning as hubs between producers in Latin America and consumers in the US and Europe. Some of the drugs remain, fueling local problems. Money laundering through dubious banks and casinos, corruption of political systems, sanctions evasion and human trafficking were also cited as threats.

Tourism depends heavily on a safe image. The Antilles currently score relatively well, but Oostindie warned that one major criminal or terrorist incident could be disastrous. Intelligence sharing is crucial, and frictions with the US pose risks.

The Kingdom plays a critical role through the Royal Navy in combating drug and human smuggling, and through the judiciary — heavily financed and staffed by the Netherlands — in prosecution. But there are challenges, including undercapacity and local perceptions that the Public Prosecutor and courts represent Dutch rather than shared Kingdom interests.

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