New Dutch survey shows strongest support for full islands independence, but high uncertainty remains

GREAT BAY--A new 2025 public opinion survey presented at the University of St. Martin finds that 40.1 percent of respondents in the European Netherlands believe the Caribbean islands should become completely independent, 20.1 percent are opposed, and 38.5 percent say they do not know or have no opinion. The findings were presented during a public lecture at USM by political scientist Prof. Wouter Veenendaal and provide fresh insight into how Dutch voters view the future of the Kingdom and its Caribbean partners.

The research, carried out through the LISS panel of Tilburg University, used an extensive online questionnaire. Of 3,657 invited participants, 2,843 completed the survey, for a response rate of almost 78 percent. The study examines attitudes toward Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten, as well as the Caribbean Netherlands of Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius, and updates earlier De Hond polls which, in 2008 and 2015, already showed strong Dutch support for ending the relationship with what was then called "the Antilles." In 2008, 49 percent favored ending that relationship, and in 2015, 61 percent said the Netherlands should completely sever ties if financial mismanagement and fraud continued.

In the new survey, respondents were asked to react to three core constitutional statements: that the political relationship between the European Netherlands and the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom should remain as it is, that the Caribbean countries (Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten) should become a province of the Netherlands, and that the Caribbean islands should become completely independent. Answers ranged from "fully agree" to "fully disagree," with room for "no answer" or "do not know / no opinion."

On the status quo, about one third supported keeping the current arrangement. A total of 4.9 percent fully agreed and 27.7 percent agreed that the political relationship must remain as it is. Some 15.7 percent disagreed and 4.6 percent fully disagreed. The single largest group, 45.8 percent, chose "do not know / no opinion," making uncertainty the most common response to the present Kingdom structure.

Provincial status received the least support. Only 3.3 percent fully agreed and 10.1 percent agreed that the Caribbean countries should become a province of the Netherlands, for a combined 13.4 percent in favor. By comparison, 32.7 percent disagreed and 13.3 percent fully disagreed, so almost 46 percent actively rejected this option. Another 39.1 percent said they did not know or had no opinion.

On the statement that the Caribbean islands should become completely independent, 12.0 percent fully agreed and 28.1 percent agreed, together 40.1 percent support. Only 16.3 percent disagreed and 3.8 percent fully disagreed. Independence therefore attracts about twice as much active support as opposition among those who express a clear position, although it is still surrounded by a large ring of ambivalence, with 38.5 percent uncertain or unwilling to choose.

The survey also connects these constitutional preferences to practical issues of finance, migration and representation. One set of questions asks whether the Netherlands should continue providing financial support to the Caribbean islands, whether residents of the islands should retain the right to move freely to the Netherlands, and whether Dutch citizens living in Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten should gain the right to vote for the Dutch parliament. Another section focuses on the Caribbean Netherlands and asks whether people in Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius should receive the same social benefits as citizens in the European Netherlands, whether the Netherlands has a moral obligation toward the islands, and whether Dutch education should devote more attention to Kingdom relations.

When results are broken down by party preference, the overall picture remains relatively consistent, but some clear contrasts appear. Voters for PVV and Forum voor Democratie are more likely to oppose continued financial support and free migration from the Caribbean to the Netherlands. Supporters of GroenLinks-PvdA, D66, CDA, SP and ChristenUnie are generally more supportive of equal social services for the Caribbean Netherlands, while voters for VVD, PVV, BBB and NSC are more hesitant on that issue.

Taken together, the earlier De Hond polls and the new LISS survey outline a longer trend in Dutch thinking about the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom. Earlier measurements highlighted a readiness to end the relationship when framed through financial mismanagement. The latest data from the USM lecture show a more nuanced reality in which independence commands the largest visible block of support among the constitutional options tested, yet competes with preferences for the status quo and sits within a broader landscape of uncertainty. For St. Maarten and its neighboring islands, that mix of support, resistance and hesitation in the European Netherlands will shape how future discussions about greater autonomy or full independence can unfold.

Prof. Wouter Veenendaal can be downloaded below.

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