Hurricane Melissa: Climate change made this storm four times more likely

MIAMI--When Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica in late October, it intensified with terrifying speed, reached Category 5 strength, and left a trail of destruction across the Caribbean. A recent study reported by Inside Climate News has confirmed that human-driven climate change made the storm four times more likely than it would have been under pre-industrial conditions.

Researchers at Imperial College London used the “IRIS” Storm Model, a large synthetic database of tropical cyclone tracks and intensities, to compare Melissa’s behavior in today’s warmer world against a cooler, pre-industrial climate. Their findings show that wind speeds were about seven percent higher because of global warming, which translated into roughly 12 percent more damage. In the pre-industrial era, a storm of Melissa’s magnitude might have occurred only once every 8,000 years; today, it could happen once every 1,700 years.

The driving factor behind this change lies in the ocean. Sea-surface temperatures across the Caribbean were about 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than historical averages, creating ideal conditions for rapid intensification. Scientists estimate that such extreme heat in the ocean is now hundreds of times more likely because of human-caused warming. As Melissa lingered over these hot waters, it absorbed vast amounts of energy, quickly transforming from a moderate storm into one of the most powerful hurricanes on record for the region.

The human toll has been devastating. Preliminary estimates place total losses across the Caribbean at more than 50 billion U.S. dollars. Jamaica alone suffered damage far exceeding its annual GDP. Thousands were displaced, entire neighborhoods flattened, crops destroyed, and key infrastructure cut off. For many Caribbean citizens, Melissa was not only a storm but a stark reminder that the climate crisis is already reshaping their daily reality.

Scientists warn that hurricanes like Melissa are no longer rare. Warmer oceans, increased atmospheric moisture, and slower storm movement are combining to make tropical systems stronger, wetter, and more destructive. What once felt like a “once in a generation” storm could soon become a recurring challenge.

Based on the above, it was concluded that cyclones similar to Hurricane Melissa are around 0.5 °C warmer, up to 14 mm/day (10%) wetter, and up to 8 km/h (up to 10% windier) in the present compared to the past. This contributes to more extreme rainfall and flooding risks, especially in urban areas like Kingston. We interpret the increased precipitation and stronger winds associated with Hurricane Melissa as being amplified by human-driven climate change, while natural variability played an important role in modulating the storm’s development and trajectory.

For the Caribbean, the lesson is clear: adaptation and resilience can no longer wait. Stronger coastal defenses, upgraded housing, improved drainage systems, and reliable early-warning networks are essential. Hurricane Melissa has made one fact undeniable, climate change is not a distant threat. It is altering the very physics of the storms that define life in the region, and preparation is now a matter of survival.

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