Forecast slightly downgraded for 2025 atlantic hurricane season

But we know better. It STILL only takes ONE!

COLORADO--The Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane research team has slightly lowered its forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season due to stronger-than-expected wind shear over the Caribbean, a factor known to suppress storm formation.

Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the team now predicts 16 named storms, down from 17 in its earlier forecast. Of those, eight are expected to become hurricanes, one fewer than previously estimated. Despite the reduction, the season is still expected to be slightly above average, which typically sees about 14 named storms.

The primary reason for the downgrade is persistently high wind shear, shifting wind speeds and directions at different altitudes, which disrupts storm development. “High levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons,” the CSU forecast noted.

So far, three tropical storms have formed, but no hurricanes. However, warmer-than-average waters in the eastern and central Atlantic could still fuel storm activity later in the season. CSU now estimates a 48% chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline, slightly above the historical average. The team also places a 53% chance of a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) impacting the Caribbean.

Klotzbach and his team emphasize that regardless of the total number of storms, “it only takes one” to make a season destructive. Even weaker systems, like Tropical Storm Chantal, which recently struck the Carolinas, can cause significant flooding and damage.

Experts continue to urge all coastal communities and all islands to prepare early and thoroughly, no matter the forecast.