Dutch Caribbean faces accelerating ageing trend: expert urges joint action and health-centered planning

THE HAGUE--The Dutch Caribbean is entering a critical demographic phase marked by rapid ageing, declining birth rates, and growing pressure on healthcare and social systems. This was highlighted during a presentation by Richard van Zwol, former Chair of the Dutch State Commission on Demographic Developments 2050, at a special session organized by the Interparliamentary Kingdom Consultation (IPKO).

Van Zwol, who previously served in several senior Kingdom governance roles and currently sits on the Council of State, presented new insights into population shifts across the Kingdom of the Netherlands, including the Caribbean countries and public entities , Aruba, Curaçao, St. Maarten, Bonaire, Saba, and St. Eustatius. His message was clear: the Caribbean part of the Kingdom is ageing at nearly the same rate as the European Netherlands, but with fewer resources to adapt.

“Ageing is not a future problem; it is here, and it is accelerating,” Van Zwol said. “In all parts of the Kingdom, the share of the population aged 65 and over is rising sharply, while the working-age population is shrinking. This will shape everything, from healthcare and education to labor markets and housing, for decades to come.”

𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐩 𝐃𝐞𝐦𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐩𝐡𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬

Data shared by Van Zwol showed that the Caribbean Netherlands, particularly Bonaire, has seen both population growth and rapid demographic change since 10-10-10. Migration from the European Netherlands and elsewhere has increased, while birth rates have declined, resulting in an older population and fewer young people entering the workforce. Saba and St. Eustatius show similar patterns, though on smaller scales.

According to the report Gerichte Groei (Targeted Growth), commissioned by the Dutch Parliament, ageing is now a certainty across all six islands. The traditional population pyramid has inverted: fewer young residents at the base and more seniors at the top. This shift is placing greater strain on health services, housing, and social care systems that were not designed for older populations.

Although no formal mandate was given to analyze Aruba, Curaçao, and St. Maarten, Van Zwol noted that data from CBS and local sources reveal similar trends: Curaçao’s and Aruba’s populations are stabilizing while St. Maarten’s has grown but is also ageing rapidly. Migration, both legal and informal, makes precise projections difficult, but all three countries face mounting pressure on healthcare, housing, and infrastructure.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞: 𝐀𝐠𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐂𝐮𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐨𝐧

Van Zwol warned that ageing carries major social and economic consequences. Smaller islands, he said, face sharper trade-offs: “Rapid demographic shifts, especially when unplanned, place the heaviest burdens on those least able to bear them, the lower-income and aging households.”

With fewer working-age adults per retiree, the ratio of caregivers to those in need of care is collapsing. “The blue line is going down,” he said, referring to data showing steep declines in the number of available caregivers per senior. “This is a social story as much as a medical one. If we do not prepare now, ageing will deepen inequality and strain public systems.”

𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬

Van Zwol outlined several priorities for the Dutch Caribbean and the Kingdom government:

• Invest in Health and Preventive Care: With ageing inevitable, population health must be strengthened at all ages. “Healthy ageing begins with younger generations,” he emphasized.

• Plan Infrastructure and Housing Early: Adapting transportation, housing, and accessibility for older populations must start now to avoid future shortages.

• Embrace Active Ageing: Older citizens are healthier than ever; societies should see this as an opportunity. “It’s no longer three life phases, study, work, retire, it’s four,” he said, urging policies that keep seniors engaged in work and community life.

• Use Scenario Planning: Because migration patterns are unpredictable, Caribbean policymakers should develop multiple demographic scenarios rather than single forecasts.

• Enhance Cooperation: Van Zwol called for stronger collaboration between the islands and with international organizations for technical and financial support in healthcare, data management, and long-term planning.

𝐀 𝐒𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐝𝐨𝐦 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲

The presentation underscored that ageing and migration are not isolated to Europe or the Caribbean—they are shared challenges across the Kingdom. “This is not a story of decline, but of preparation,” Van Zwol concluded. “Demographic trends cannot be reversed, but we can shape how we respond—through cooperation, realistic planning, and social investment.”

The State Commission on Demographic Developments 2050 will publish detailed recommendations for both the European and Caribbean parts of the Kingdom later this year, focusing on sustainable governance, inter-island collaboration, and equitable access to care and opportunity.

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