Despite slight variations, CBCS and STAT agree: St. Maarten’s economy expanded

GREAT BAY--There were two GDP reports released last week. Both the Department of Statistics of St. Maarten (STAT) and the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (CBCS) agree: St. Maarten’s economy expanded in 2023 and continued its upward trajectory in 2024, though at a slower pace. While the two institutions report slightly different growth rates, the underlying data points to positive performance supported by tourism recovery, construction activity, and increased consumer demand.

STAT estimates that the economy grew by 3.4 percent in 2023 in real terms, based on constant 2018 prices, while the CBCS reports a slightly higher growth rate of 3.8 percent. These small differences reflect variations in methodology, with STAT relying on finalized national accounts and CBCS incorporating broader fiscal and monetary indicators.

In current prices, which capture actual market value without adjusting for inflation, GDP increased by 6.3 percent, from NAf 2,782.8 million to NAf 2,957.0 million, according to STAT.

𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐓𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦, 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞

The tourism sector remained one of the key growth drivers. The accommodation and food service activities sector grew by 6 percent in real terms, reaching NAf 220.5 million, while nominal values climbed more than 13 percent to NAf 471.1 million. This growth reflects increased visitor arrivals, longer stays, and higher spending.

Construction activity also rose, with a real increase of 6.4 percent, moving from NAf 41.3 million to NAf 43.8 million, signaling continued infrastructure investment and post-disaster rebuilding. The wholesale and retail trade sector posted a 5.6 percent increase in real output, and the transportation and storage sector rose by 6.3 percent.

Some sectors, however, showed weaker performance. Financial and insurance activities declined by 6.4 percent in real terms, and education saw marginal contraction. Other sectors such as health and social work, arts and entertainment, and public administration posted modest gains.

𝐏𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬

STAT’s GDP deflator, which tracks overall price movements across the economy, rose from 114.0 to 117.1 in 2023, indicating average price inflation of about 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, the CBCS reported consumer price inflation of 2.1 percent for 2023, increasing to 3.6 percent in 2024, driven in part by rising imports that outpaced export growth.

The difference between the two inflation measures lies in scope. STAT’s deflator accounts for prices across all sectors, while CBCS uses consumer prices, which focus on household expenditures.

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐑𝐞𝐟𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐄𝐧𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐋𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬

According to CBCS, real GDP growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2024, down from 3.8 percent in 2023. This deceleration is linked to the completion of major public infrastructure projects, which had temporarily boosted growth in prior years.

STAT has not yet released GDP figures for 2024, but both institutions suggest that the economy continued expanding, albeit more moderately.

𝐅𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐬

CBCS reported that the government recorded a budget deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP in 2024, a reversal from the 0.6 percent surplus in 2023. The shift was driven by higher spending on wages and public services that outpaced revenue growth. Public debt rose to 44.2 percent of GDP, following a NAf 132 million bond issuance. The debt ratio is projected to decline slightly to 43.9 percent in 2025.

Despite these pressures, CBCS expects fiscal performance to improve, projecting a budget surplus of 0.3 percent in 2025, supported by enhanced tax compliance and revenue administration.

𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤

Looking ahead, the CBCS forecasts that St. Maarten’s economy will grow by 2.6 percent in 2025, driven by new waves of private investment in utilities and port infrastructure and continued work on public projects, including the construction of a new prison and a mental health facility.

However, the central bank also cautions that net foreign demand is expected to decline, as imports are projected to grow faster than exports. Managing trade imbalances, sustaining tourism gains, and maintaining fiscal discipline will be key to supporting steady economic growth moving forward.

The combined reporting from STAT and CBCS paints a consistent picture: St. Maarten’s economy is growing, but the pace is beginning to normalize. Sustained investment, targeted policy measures, and sectoral diversification will be necessary to ensure long-term resilience.

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