Caribbean Tourism Growth Stalls in 2025 as market mix shifts

CARIBBEAN REGION--The Caribbean’s tourism recovery has slowed sharply in 2025, even as global travel continues to expand. According to preliminary UN Tourism (formerly UNWTO) estimates for the first nine months of 2025, international trips worldwide grew by 4.6 percent, while Caribbean arrivals increased by just 0.8 percent over the same period.

UN Tourism data classify the Caribbean as the second slowest growing region globally, ahead only of North America, which has been affected by significant drops in United States arrivals from Canada and Europe. (UN Tourism does not include Mexico in its Caribbean definition.)

A closer look at the figures shows that the weak regional headline is heavily influenced by the performance of a few large destinations. Cuba recorded a loss of 352,289 stopover visitors in the first nine months of 2025, a decline of 20.5 percent from 1,719,009 arrivals in 2024 to 1,366,720 in 2025. When Cuba is excluded, Caribbean growth rises from 0.8 percent to just over 2 percent, still modest but almost three times stronger than the headline suggests.

Within that adjusted picture, The Bahamas saw a decline of 57,101 visitors (down 3.9 percent), and the Dominican Republic, the region’s largest destination, registered only 2.3 percent growth despite adding 144,706 visitors. By contrast, several smaller islands posted stronger percentage gains, including Curaçao (up 13.2 percent), Barbados (up 5.5 percent), and Aruba (up 4.8 percent), although their visitor volumes are not sufficient to compensate for declines in the largest markets.

The data also point to stagnation and decline in traditional source markets. Overall United States arrivals to the Caribbean showed zero growth in the first nine months of 2025. While destinations such as Curaçao (up 19.5 percent) and Barbados (up 12.0 percent) increased U.S. traffic, the Dominican Republic reported a 3.7 percent decline in U.S. visitors and The Bahamas recorded a 2.7 percent drop in U.S. arrivals through July.

Canadian travel to the Caribbean fell by nearly 8 percent, driven by an 18.0 percent decline in visits to Cuba (down 135,842 visitors) and a 5.8 percent fall in Canadian arrivals to the Dominican Republic (down 51,407 visitors). UK arrivals also retreated across several key destinations. In response, a number of Caribbean countries have intensified marketing efforts in Latin America. Argentina alone generated 455,711 visitors to key Caribbean destinations, an increase of 75 percent year on year, while the Dominican Republic reported Colombian arrivals up 17.2 percent and Brazilian arrivals up 16.3 percent.

This growing reliance on Latin American markets raises important questions about economic value that cannot be answered with currently available public data. Two critical breakdowns are generally not published by Caribbean tourism authorities and central banks: visitor spending by source market and accommodation patterns by source market, including whether guests are staying in locally owned properties or international all inclusive resorts. Without this information, it is difficult to determine whether new Latin American arrivals are replacing higher spending North American and UK visitors, or whether volume growth is masking a decline in tourism revenue.

Based on the data available to date, three main points are clear:

• Cuba’s 20.5 percent decline, representing 352,289 fewer visitors, is a primary factor pulling down overall regional performance. Excluding Cuba, Caribbean growth rises from 0.8 percent to approximately 2 percent.

• Traditional markets have weakened or stalled. Overall U.S. arrivals showed no growth, Canadian traffic declined by nearly 8 percent, and UK arrivals decreased across several key destinations.

• Smaller destinations are currently outperforming larger ones in percentage terms, suggesting that agility and niche positioning may offer advantages in a more volatile market environment.

𝘚𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘤𝘦: 𝘛𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘮 𝘈𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘺𝘴𝘪𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘜𝘕 𝘛𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘮 𝘥𝘢𝘵𝘢 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘴.

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